Outlook

The phrase “annus horribilis” was used some 30 years ago by Queen Elizabeth II to describe an awful year for her family but, for several reason, it is an apt description of 2022. In our year end newsletter, David recaps why it was such a bad year but also offers some optimism for 2023.

“Titan” by Ron Chernow is a titanic book about John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in the world 100 year ago. David recently waded through the 800 pages and found that it painted a terrific portrait of a very unusual man, and a very unusual period in American history. He found that there are lots of lessons to be learned from his life, and many of them seem particularly relevant right now.

The big tech stocks, often referred to as "FAANG", that were the darlings over the past decade, have had a tough year so far. In this month's newsletter, Ernest Wong and David Baskin argue that it is not yet time give up on them.

Sometimes one of the hardest things in the world to do is nothing. This is most particularly the case when we are fearful. Our bodies evolved a very deep-seated “fight or flight” mechanism to keep us safe.

For the first time in over a decade, the Canadian 5-year bond has a yield of over 3%. In this month’s article, David analyzes what substantially higher interest rates mean for both savers and borrowers, as well as the impact of inflation.

We wrote last month that much of the hoped-for recovery would depend on earnings reports for the 2nd quarter, and the forecasts that companies would make about the outlook for the second half of the year. We are happy to say: so far, so good. David analyzes the strong month of July in this quarter’s newsletter.

From June 8th to June 16th, the S&P 500, the index of the most valuable traded companies in the United States, dropped 520 points, or 12.5%. About $4 trillion of market capitalization was vapourized in just over a week. That is, by any measure, a staggering amount of money.

During May, the outlook for interest rates and inflation continued to rise, consumer demand weakened, supply chain constraints appeared to be getting worse, and the Ukraine/Russia conflict showed no sign of ending. Despite headlines that are certainly not improving, the S&P 500 ended the month exactly flat, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ was down just 3%.

Usually, when the stock market is having a bad period, as it certainly is now, investors can take some comfort in the fixed income part of their portfolio. They know that returns on fixed income are lower over time, but at least the capital is protected and yields are predictable. Usually. The last six months have seen the biggest drop in the bond market in history.