Outlook

During May, the outlook for interest rates and inflation continued to rise, consumer demand weakened, supply chain constraints appeared to be getting worse, and the Ukraine/Russia conflict showed no sign of ending. Despite headlines that are certainly not improving, the S&P 500 ended the month exactly flat, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ was down just 3%. This result was encouraging because it suggests that investors are no longer reacting as harshly to bad news. As Barry noted during our Shaken but not Stirred presentation in April (which can be viewed here), stocks start going up far in advance of any actual improvements in the situation.

Usually, when the stock market is having a bad period, as it certainly is now, investors can take some comfort in the fixed income part of their portfolio. They know that returns on fixed income are lower over time, but at least the capital is protected and yields are predictable. Usually. The last six months have seen the biggest drop in the bond market in history. In Europe, where government-issued debt has traded with yields at or below zero for the last three years, losses have been in the trillions of dollars (or Euros). In North America, losses have been on a smaller scale, but are still very substantial.

LIONS AND TIGERS AND LOTS OF BEARS We all follow our own paths towards our financial goals. Sometimes we appear to be on the yellow brick road where the sun is shining, the sky is blue and there are no [...]

What Matters There are lots of things we, as professional investors, cannot control. We cannot make Russia behave, although we wish we could. We cannot make the economy stronger, although it seems to be doing that by itself. We cannot [...]

Many of our clients are concerned about the world situation, the stock market and the impact on their investments. This video will let you know how we are viewing the current moment, and what we intend to do (and not do).

January was the worst month for U.S. stock markets since the start of the pandemic in early 2020. While the TSX was buoyed up by strong commodity prices, the S&P 500 fell by 5.3% and the NASDAQ fell by 9%.  It is not unusual for markets to retrace gains made in strong periods, and there is no doubt that since the markets bottomed in April 2020, this has been a very strong period indeed. From trough to peak, the S&P 500 doubled, the NASDAQ rose 139% and the TSX rose 92%.  Really, we have no business complaining about a bad month! However, it is certainly worth while looking at some of the factors behind the bruising start to the year.

If you were not surprised by the markets in 2021, you were not paying attention. At the start of 2021 nobody expected a second consecutive year of great stock market gains. Nobody expected record low unemployment, or rising (and still rising) housing prices, or that inflation would increase at rates not seen in thirty or more years. We at Baskin Wealth Management were as surprised as everyone else; pleasantly so, in this case, but we know that not all surprises are nice ones. As I settle into my new role as Chairman of Baskin Wealth Management, I would like to share four lessons I have learned from my thirty years as a professional investor. I think they can help to make you a happier, more confident, and more successful investor.

On Thursday, December 2, David conducted our first virtual Outlook event where he discussed the current inflationary environment touching on the causes, whether we should we be concerned or not and what we are doing about it. If you were not able to attend, or did and would like a recap, we have attached a recording of the event as well as a copy of David’s slides with notes.

On Thursday, December 2, David conducted our first virtual Outlook event where he discussed the current inflationary environment touching on the causes, whether you should be concerned or not and what we are doing about it. Outlook 2022   Events [...]