Outlook

Outlook2024-01-25T07:57:12-05:00

Monthly Newsletter – January 2023

By |Feb 2nd, 2023|

Why are the central bankers still raising rates? In this month’s newsletter, David explains that this is likely because the tools they are using are incredibly complicated to interpret and are perhaps not as relevant in today’s environment. As such, our focus will always be on the companies we own, and less about what the sometimes confused central bankers might do next.

Monthly Newsletter – December 2022

By |Jan 5th, 2023|

The phrase “annus horribilis” was used some 30 years ago by Queen Elizabeth II to describe an awful year for her family but, for several reason, it is an apt description of 2022. In our year end newsletter, David recaps why it was such a bad year but also offers some optimism for 2023.

Monthly Newsletter – November 2022

By |Dec 5th, 2022|

“Titan” by Ron Chernow is a titanic book about John D. Rockefeller, the richest man in the world 100 year ago. David recently waded through the 800 pages and found that it painted a terrific portrait of a very unusual man, and a very unusual period in American history. He found that there are lots of lessons to be learned from his life, and many of them seem particularly relevant right now.

Monthly Newsletter – September 2022

By |Oct 4th, 2022|

Sometimes one of the hardest things in the world to do is nothing. This is most particularly the case when we are fearful. Our bodies evolved a very deep-seated “fight or flight” mechanism to keep us safe.

Monthly Newsletter – August 2022

By |Sep 1st, 2022|

For the first time in over a decade, the Canadian 5-year bond has a yield of over 3%. In this month’s article, David analyzes what substantially higher interest rates mean for both savers and borrowers, as well as the impact of inflation.

Monthly Newsletter – July 2022

By |Aug 4th, 2022|

We wrote last month that much of the hoped-for recovery would depend on earnings reports for the 2nd quarter, and the forecasts that companies would make about the outlook for the second half of the year. We are happy to say: so far, so good. David analyzes the strong month of July in this quarter’s newsletter.

Monthly Newsletter – June 2022

By |Jul 4th, 2022|

From June 8th to June 16th, the S&P 500, the index of the most valuable traded companies in the United States, dropped 520 points, or 12.5%. About $4 trillion of market capitalization was vapourized in just over a week. That is, by any measure, a staggering amount of money.

Monthly Newsletter – May 2022

By |Jun 6th, 2022|

During May, the outlook for interest rates and inflation continued to rise, consumer demand weakened, supply chain constraints appeared to be getting worse, and the Ukraine/Russia conflict showed no sign of ending. Despite headlines that are certainly not improving, the S&P 500 ended the month exactly flat, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ was down just 3%.

Monthly Newsletter – April 2022

By |May 2nd, 2022|

Usually, when the stock market is having a bad period, as it certainly is now, investors can take some comfort in the fixed income part of their portfolio. They know that returns on fixed income are lower over time, but at least the capital is protected and yields are predictable. Usually. The last six months have seen the biggest drop in the bond market in history.

Monthly Newsletter – March 2022

By |Apr 5th, 2022|

We all follow our own paths towards our financial goals. Sometimes we appear to be on the yellow brick road where the sun is shining, the sky is blue and there are no dangers to be seen. Other times we are in the deep, dark forest where we just know there are lions and tigers and bears. Oh my!

Monthly Newsletter – February 2022

By |Mar 2nd, 2022|

There are lots of things we, as professional investors, cannot control. We cannot make Russia behave, although we wish we could. We cannot make the economy stronger, although it seems to be doing that by itself.

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